핵심요약

• 미국이 캐나다 수입품에 50% 관세를 부과했으나, 이는 캐나다 수입품의 5%에만 영향을 미치는 제한적인 조치이다.
• 캐나다는 BYD와 같은 기업을 포함한 무역 다각화를 통해 경제적 회복력을 확보하고 있다.
• 캐나다는 미국보다 낮은 4.2%의 금리로 30년간 자금을 조달할 수 있어 자본 조달 측면에서 유리한 위치에 있다.
• 캐나다 국민은 미국을 러시아나 중국보다 더 큰 안보 위협으로 인식하는 심리적 변화를 겪고 있다.

도입

본 기사는 미국과 캐나다 간의 무역 분쟁이 미국에게 일방적인 승리를 가져다주기 어렵다는 점을 지적하며, 캐나다의 경제적 회복탄력성과 지정학적 인식 변화가 무역 관계에 미치는 영향을 분석합니다. 이는 단기적인 관세 충돌을 넘어, 글로벌 공급망과 안보 환경 변화가 어떻게 국가 간 경제 관계를 재편하는지를 이해하는 데 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다.

본문 1: 무역 갈등의 한계와 미국의 제한된 선택지

미국이 캐나다에 대해 무역 조치를 취하는 상황은 전략적 선택의 한계에 직면해 있음을 보여줍니다. 미국이 1930년 법률을 인용하여 관세를 부과하는 행위는 사법부의 판단에 따라 대통령이 비상 권한을 발동하여 관세를 부과할 수 없다는 선례가 이미 존재합니다. 또한, 트럼프 행정부는 인플레이션에 시달리는 소비자들을 위해 비용 절감을 우선시하며, 일부 관세(예: 육류 수입에 대한 300,000톤 미만)를 일시적으로 중단하는 등 유연한 정책을 취하고 있습니다. 이는 무역 전쟁이 미국에 일방적인 승리를 가져다주기 어렵다는 점을 뒷받침합니다. 이러한 제한적인 선택지는 미국이 캐나다와의 관계를 완전히 단절하는 대신, 협상을 재개할 여지를 남겨두는 결과를 낳습니다. 이는 미국이 강압적인 무역 조치보다는 외교적 대화를 통해 장기적인 이익을 추구해야 함을 시사합니다.

본문 2: 캐나다의 경제적 회복력과 구조적 변화

캐나다는 외부 충격에 대응하여 무역 구조를 성공적으로 다각화하고 있습니다. 특히 중국의 전기차 거대 기업인 BYD와 같은 기업을 수용하는 것은 캐나다 경제가 특정 시장에 대한 의존도를 줄이고 새로운 기회를 창출하고 있음을 의미합니다. 경제적 안정성 측면에서도 캐나다는 미국보다 유리한 자금 조달 환경을 가지고 있습니다. 캐나다는 30년 동안 4.2%의 이자율로 자금을 조달할 수 있는 반면, 미국 국채 금리는 5.3%까지 상승했습니다. 이러한 금리 차이는 캐나다 경제가 상대적으로 낮은 비용으로 자본을 확보하며 경기 침체에 더 잘 대응할 수 있는 구조적 이점을 제공합니다. 이는 단순한 관세 충돌을 넘어선 구조적 경쟁 우위로 작용하며, 캐나다의 경제적 탄력성을 입증합니다.

본문 3: 지정학적 인식 변화와 장기적 전망

가장 주목할 만한 변화는 캐나다 국민의 심리적 인식 변화입니다. Nanos Research Group의 조사에 따르면, 캐나다 국민은 러시아나 중국보다 미국을 더 큰 안보 위협으로 인식하는 경향을 보입니다. 이러한 인식의 변화는 무역 갈등을 넘어선 안보 프레임워크 내에서 양국 관계를 재정립해야 할 필요성을 제기합니다. 경제적 회복력과 안보 인식의 변화는 양국이 일방적인 무역 패권 경쟁보다는 상호 협력적인 다자간 시스템을 구축하는 방향으로 전환할 가능성을 시사합니다. 따라서 향후 양국 관계는 단기적인 경제적 실리뿐만 아니라 지정학적 안정성이라는 더 큰 축을 중심으로 재편될 것으로 전망됩니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적, 구조적 변화를 면밀히 관찰하며 장기적인 포트폴리오 전략을 수립해야 할 것입니다.

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The U.S. is unlikely to win its ‘dumb trade war’ with Canada. Here’s why - Fortune

Good morning. America’s trade war against its closest ally has escalated again, with the Trump administration invoking section 338 of a notorious 1930 law to impose 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports. The sticking points were both economic and cultural, with Quebec’s French-language laws even coming under attack . Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is being praised for his response while Trump was criticized, even by members of his own party . This is not a war that America, or American business, is likely to win. Here’s why.

Trump’s options are limited. There’s a reason this latest missive only impacts 5% of Canadian imports. The Supreme Court already decided the president can’t invoke emergency powers to impose tariffs. Walmart is now using its tariff refund to lower prices . The Iran war has increased demand for Canada’s oil, aluminum and fertilizer; Saskatchewan is known as the Saudi Arabia of potash, with more than a third of global supply. And Trump’s priority is to lower costs for inflation-weary consumers ahead of the midterms, just suspending tariffs on imports of up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to bring cheaper foreign meat into the market. As Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer told me over the weekend: “There’s still time to walk this back … Trump not taking a public victory lap makes last-minute resumption of talks possible.”

Canada is becoming more resilient. The Canadian government is diversifying trade, letting in companies like Chinese EV giant BYD , and can borrow money at 4.2% for 30 years while comparable U.S. Treasury yields have risen to 5.3%. As a dual citizen who often travels north of the border, though, I think the biggest shift is psychological. Canadians now see the U.S. as a greater threat to their security than Russia or China, according to a survey by Nanos Research Group. “Canadian opinion has turned largely on the direct attacks from Donald Trump,” founder and chief data scientist Nik Nanos told me yesterday. “At the same time, a very strong majority of Canadians want to have a trade deal.”

Just as the Luftwaffe’s bombing of London during the Blitz of 1940 strengthened British resolve in World War II, Washington’s repeated attacks on Canada have consolidated support for Prime Minister Mark Carney. Carney’s approval rating now hovers around 60%, while Trump’s approval rating has sunk to around 35%. From his fiery speech in Davos to his comments this weekend , the prime minister has turned each assault into a rallying cry. “America is trying to break us so that they can own us,” Carney said at a press conference on Saturday. “That will never, ever happen.”

This is a dumb trade war. From Florida tourism operators to automakers with integrated supply chains, most U.S. companies view Canada as a partner in prosperity. The Canadian American Business Council estimates the successful renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement could create an additional 137,000 U.S. jobs and 98,000 Canadian jobs next year. Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten issued a statement saying that “new tariffs and retaliation risk raising costs for American businesses and families.”

Canada used to be America’s best friend. Despite Trump’s claims, the world’s longest undefended border is not a pain point for illegal immigration, drug traffic or security threats. With bilateral cooperation, it’s the opposite. The economies remain intertwined, with the Gordie Howe International Bridge between Detroit and Windsor officially opening just days before the latest rift . U.S. officials weren’t invited. As one Canadian CEO told me recently: “In a dumb trade war, you eventually work out the trade but you never regain the trust.” Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Hardworking, highly-educated women may be concerned about the loss of autonomy that can accompany unequal child-rearing responsibilities, according to Claudia Goldin, a Nobel Prize-winning economic historian at Harvard. “The more that men can credibly signal they will be dependable ‘dads’ and not disappointing ‘duds,’ the more investment in women’s education and careers, and the higher will be the birthrate in the face of greater female agency,” she wrote in a recent working paper.

Inside Walter’s sports empire and money machine

Mark Walter, controlling owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, now faces scrutiny over the financial machinery behind his sports empire. A U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly investigating whether financial firms tied to Walter improperly handled billions of dollars in loans from insurance companies also connected to him. Private equity and private credit are increasingly turning to insurers’ long-term capital to fund a broader range of transactions.

The Treasury’s ‘soft-form financial repression’

Markets are increasingly focused on whether policymakers will address the root causes of growing U.S. debt. Yet the U.S. Treasury Department’s recent interventions in the bond and currency markets suggest that officials are more focused on just managing the symptoms. “We see both the buyback and encouragement to use the FIMA facility for FX reserves as soft-form financial repression policies aimed at containing the long-end of the U.S. yield curve,” Deutsche Bank analysts argue, referring to the practice of trying to keep interest rates low by influencing financial markets.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% this morning. The last session rose 0.4%. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 3.1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 0.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.9%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 is down 1.2%. Alibaba’s Hong Kong shares are down 8.5% after the Chinese tech company announced plans for a $10 billion share sale. Samsung Electronics also dropped 8.7% despite forecasting shareholder returns of $70 billion. India’s NIFTY 50 is down 0.3%, while the STOXX Europe 600 is flat in early trading. Bitcoin is hovering above $77,000.

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The AI boom is lifting economies across Asia. But for Southeast Asia, it might just be a ‘short-term blip’ by Angelica Ang

Today's edition of CEO Daily is curated and edited by Joseph Abrams, Jason Ma, Nicholas Gordon, and Lee Clifford.

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