트럼프의 이란 관련 경제 위협: 국제 경제 제재의 가능성 분석
The fatal flaw(s) in Trump’s new economic threat to countries assisting Iran - MS NOW
이번 발표는 극심한 지정학적 불확실성을 야기하여 시장의 위험 회피 심리를 자극하며, 시장 반응이 즉각적으로 분산될 수 있습니다.
핵심 요약
트럼프 대통령은 이란 관련 경제 생명줄 제공국들에 대해 경제 D-DAY를 선언하며 고립 및 경제 전쟁을 위협했습니다.
Original Article
The fatal flaw(s) in Trump’s new economic threat to countries assisting Iran - MS NOW
It’s been nearly six months since Donald Trump launched a war with Iran, and the president does not appear to have any idea how to end the conflict. By all appearances, he’s expecting officials in Tehran to succumb eventually and simply give up. To that end, the Republican published a new threat to his social media platform early Wednesday night. It read in part: ... I am announcing the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY! This will be Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale. .... Today, I am also announcing that ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences. Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies — It all needs to stop NOW. You know who you are. This will be an ECONOMIC D-DAY, and we need all of our Allies to stand with the United States of America to isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat. These maniacs are on the ropes, and these HISTORIC MEASURES will cripple them and their ability to project terror worldwide. The obvious question in response to a statement like this one is to ask what, exactly, the American president intends to do, although neither he nor the White House was willing to offer any further details. The second question, however, is more foundational: Did Trump mean a word of this? His online statement said, for example, that he intends to impose “TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences” on countries that extend economic lifelines to Iran, but the president has confronted ample evidence that, for example, Russia and China are aiding Iran, which has generated little more than a shrug. Let’s not forget that as recently January, Trump published a similarly provocative statement to his social media platform, which sparked some confusion. “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” the president wrote. “This Order is final and conclusive.” The message raised eyebrows around the globe. The United Arab Emirates, for example, a U.S. ally, does extensive business with Iran, as do China and India. Was the White House seriously prepared to impose harsh economic penalties on those countries? Even as Trump tried to advance unrelated trade deals? If the Republican’s online statement was to be believed, the answer was simple: Trump’s “order” was “final and conclusive.” Taken at face value, there was no wiggle room, it was a done deal. Countries that did business with Iran were supposed to prepare for U.S.-imposed economic penalties “effective immediately.” And then ... nothing happened. Trump simply didn’t bother to follow through on his declaration. Maybe this time will be even more final and conclusive, or maybe not. But if the president wanted his threats to be taken seriously, he shouldn’t have set his credibility on fire. It’s precisely why it’s important to keep the “watch what they do, not what they say” maxim in mind.