이란, 호르무즈 해협 통제 강화…65% 유류 수출 중국행
Iran War: Tehran seeks to expand authority over Hormuz - The Jerusalem Post
이란이 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄하면서 중국으로의 원유 수출량 65%가 중단되며 공급망에 극심한 충격을 주고 있습니다.
핵심 요약
이란이 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄하자 선박 통행량이 32척으로 감소했고, 65%의 원유 수출이 중국으로 향했습니다.
핵심요약
- 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄로 선박 통행량 32척으로 급감
- 65%의 원유 수출이 중국으로 향함
- PGSA는 선박 통행 허가 및 화물 정보 공개 요구
- 이란, 해협 통제 강화로 국제법 위반 가능성
도입
호르무즈 해협은 세계 원유 수출의 30%가 통과하는 전략적 요충지입니다. 이란의 해협 통제 강화는 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향이 크며, 특히 중국과 같은 주요 수출국에 대한 영향을 고려해야 합니다. 이번 조치의 장기적 영향과 시장 변동성에 대한 분석이 필요합니다.
본문 1: 호르무즈 해협의 전략적 중요성
호르무즈 해협을 통해 32척의 선박만 통행하는 것으로 나타났습니다. 이는 이전보다 23척 감소한 수치로, 이란의 조치가 실제로 해협의 운송 효율성을 떨어뜨리고 있음을 보여줍니다. 이는 에너지 시장의 불안정을 초래할 수 있으며, 특히 중동 지역에서의 유류 수출에 대한 의존도를 높일 수 있습니다. 이란의 PGSA가 선박 통행 허가 및 화물 정보 공개 요구를 강화함으로써, 국제적인 법적 분쟁의 가능성도 제기됩니다.
본문 2: 중국과의 에너지 관계
65%의 원유 수출이 중국으로 향하는 것으로 나타났습니다. 이는 중국이 중동의 에너지 자원을 안정적으로 확보하기 위해 이란과의 협력을 강화할 가능성이 높음을 시사합니다. 그러나 이란의 조치가 국제법에 위배될 경우, 중국도 이를 고려하여 에너지 수급 전략을 조정해야 할 것입니다. 단기적으로는 중국과의 협력 강화가 예상되지만, 장기적으로는 다각화된 에너지 수급 전략이 필요할 것입니다.
본문 3: 국제법적 분쟁의 가능성
이란의 PGSA는 선박 통행 허가 및 화물 정보 공개 요구를 통해 해협 통제권을 강화하고 있습니다. 이는 국제법에 위배될 수 있으며, 국제사회의 강경한 대응을 초래할 수 있습니다. 특히 미국을 포함한 서방 국가들은 이란의 조치를 강하게 비판할 가능성이 높으며, 이는 중동 지역의 지정학적 긴장감을 높일 수 있습니다. 장기적으로는 국제사회의 협력을 통해 호르무즈 해협의 안정을 확보하는 것이 중요할 것입니다.
결론
이란의 호르무즈 해협 통제 강화는 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향이 크며, 특히 중국과의 에너지 관계와 국제법적 분쟁의 가능성을 고려해야 합니다. 단기적으로는 중국과의 협력 강화가 예상되지만, 장기적으로는 다각화된 에너지 수급 전략이 필요할 것입니다. 국제사회의 협력을 통해 호르무즈 해협의 안정을 확보하는 것이 중요할 것입니다.
Original Article
Iran War: Tehran seeks to expand authority over Hormuz - The Jerusalem Post
The Islamic Republic's decision to announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, along with the terms and conditions published by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), makes clear that Tehran intends to continue to use the vital waterway, an expert told The Jerusalem Post on Monday.Though US Central Command asserted the waterway remained opened, shortly after Iran's announcement that it closed the strait in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, data from analytics firm Kpler revealed that traffic plunged following the Iranian announcement.CENTCOM claimed on Saturday that 55 merchant ships transited through Hormuz, moving more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets, though the Israeli maritime company Windward AI published on Sunday that the day prior had seen only 32 ships transit and 65% of crude oil exports since June 8 have been destined for China.Three of the vessels were sanctioned Very Large Crude Oil Carriers, including one Iranian-flagged vessel, operating in the open, windward noted.“Throughout the conflict, sanctioned tonnage in this theater operated almost entirely dark. This posture shift — loading in the open — is consistent with a fleet that no longer judges concealment necessary following the US-Iran MoU signed 17 June,” the Israeli company suggested.Iran's tactics are illegal under international law, expert saysIn addition to becoming bolder with sanctioned vessels in the maritime territory, the Islamic Republic's PGSA has also continued to assert dominion over Hormuz, asserting that ships must still seek permission from Iran to cross and disclose information about the ship's ownership, origins and cargo.The Post was also able to confirm that the PGSA's “Passage rules and regulations” asserts that the Iranian group “reserves the right to enforce penalties, revoke permissions or take further legal action” if ships fail to comply with PGSA orders and that the “PGSA reserves the right to introduce insurance fees in the future.”Professor Michael Clarke, a prominent British defense analyst, academic, and former Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute, explained to The Post that such plans by Iran are illegal under international law.The right to keep the Strait of Hormuz open is guaranteed by the doctrine of transit passage under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and customary international law, and asserts that transport across the waterway be unimpeded even during times of conflict.The Islamic Republic has attempted to gain international authority of Hormuz, first demanding tolls for crossing and then fees for services rendered by allowing ships to cross the waterway safely, though it is the Islamic Republic's firing at ships and placement of mines that threatened secure transit.The United States has not confirmed the number of mines laid by Iran, though a Whitehouse official confirmed to CNBC earlier this month that more than 40 minelaying vessels had been destroyed.Clarke suggested that Iran was trying to “normalize” the need for shipping companies to coordinate with PGSA as a matter of necessity before again pushing for the financial boost that control of Hormuz would provide.According to the 16th annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper: Fighting Words, published by J.P. Morgan, Iran stands to gain between USD 70-90 billion in annual revenue from tolls alone. With a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies now disrupted for over three months, and US President Donald Trump claiming last week that global oil supplies will run out in four weeks if the strait is not opened, Clarke noted that Iran had the potential to gain more from the already overwhelmingly favorable MoU.The impact of global desperation has meant that Iran is able to hold Israel operations “hostage,” creating a pressure campaign, motivated by fear of oil scarcity, for Israel to absorb attacks from Hezbollah without responding to the terror group,” Clarke highlighted.Israel, who was not a party to the US agreement and was indeed largely excluded from the processes, will now be blamed for every closure of Hormuz, he explained.Trump suggested Sharaa's forces fight Hezbollah, signaling loss of support for JerusalemTensions between Washington and Jerusalem have already been made apparent, with Trump suggesting Syria may be better adept at handling the threat of Hezbollah and a heated exchange between the US leader and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Axios reported that Trump demanded Netanyahu back off on the strikes on Hezbollah, telling him he was “f***ing crazy,” Netanyahu would be in prison had Trump not intervened and that Israel is widely hated because of him.Israeli reporter Barak Ravid told CNN that staff close to Trump told him there was an increasing feeling that Netanyahu has lost control, or that Trump has lost control of Netanyahu, as Jerusalem and Washington have differing interests in the coming actions.As noted by Clarke, the war against Iran has been largely unpopular in the United States and with US federal elections approaching, Trump is interested in ending the war. With national security at risk, and three years of devastating wars against multiple Iranian proxy groups, Netanyahu wants to see the fall of the Islamic regime through renewed conflict.“The Americans essentially lost the war on the 8th of April with the ceasefire and we are seeing a progressive surrender,” Clarke asserted, adding that Iran's demands would only grow taller as Washington's desperation becomes more apparent.Having failed to remove the nuclear threat, Washington must now return to the old policy of managing that threat but under significantly worse conditions, he added, claiming that the war has only led to a strengthened IRGC-led regime and a weakened civil society because of its premature ending.Citing the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimate that the war cost Iran $144 billion, half of the country's annual GDP, and the significant anger held by the Iranian public over the January massacres, Clarke conceded when asked that the opportunity for regime change had been missed and that the Iranian people's trust had been lost by the “stupid” promises made by the US president to those taking to the streets at great personal cost.“The whole thing is a strategic failure of the first order,” he concluded, adding that he predicted regime change would still eventually come but it would be a far more violent ordeal than had the relevant powers pursued the end of the Islamic regime now.