핵심요약

• 3월 31일 52주 신고가 67.45달러, 연초 대비 60% 상승
• WTI 원유 가격 112.25달러에서 70달러로 하락하며 주가 50달러까지 조정
• 상류 사업에 집중되어 원유 가격 변동성에 민감
• 엑손모빌, 쉐브론 대비 덜 다각화된 사업 구조
• 저탄소 사업 부문 성장 가능성

도입

이 기사는 원유 가격 변동성이 주가 변동성에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 중요한 사례입니다. 특히 상류 사업에 집중된 에너지 기업의 수익 구조와 리스크 관리를 이해하는 데 도움이 됩니다. 또한, 원유 가격 하락 시에도 기업의 수익성 유지 가능성을 평가하는 데 필요한 인사이트를 제공합니다.

본문 1: 상류 사업 집중의 리스크와 기회

옥시덴탈은 엑손모빌이나 쉐브론과 달리 상류 사업에 집중되어 있습니다. 이는 원유 가격 상승 시 수익 성장률이 높지만, 하락 시에는 수익성 악화 리스크가 큽니다. 기사에 따르면, 원유 가격이 112.25달러에서 70달러로 하락하면서 옥시덴탈의 주가도 67.45달러에서 50달러까지 급락했습니다. 이는 상류 사업의 수익 구조가 원유 가격에 크게 의존한다는 점을 보여줍니다. 따라서 원유 가격 변동성에 민감한 투자자에게는 주의가 필요합니다.

본문 2: 저탄소 사업의 성장 가능성

옥시덴탈은 최근 저탄소 사업 부문을 확대하고 있습니다. 이는 탄소 포집 및 직접 공기 포집 기술 개발을 통해 장기적인 경쟁력을 강화하려는 전략입니다. 기사에 따르면, 저탄소 사업은 옥시덴탈의 수익 구성에서 점차 중요해지고 있습니다. 이는 에너지 전환 트렌드에 부응하는 전략으로, 장기적으로 기업 가치를 높이는 데 기여할 수 있습니다. 그러나 현재 저탄소 사업의 규모는 아직 작아, 단기적인 수익에는 큰 영향을 미치지 못할 수 있습니다.

결론

옥시덴탈은 원유 가격 변동성에 민감한 상류 사업에 집중되어 있어, 원유 가격 하락 시 주가 변동성이 큽니다. 그러나 저탄소 사업의 확대 가능성은 장기적인 성장 동력으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 향후 원유 가격 동향과 저탄소 사업의 진척 상황을 주시해야 합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7AFBVV95cUxPOFVoTWFmal9JV2ctb0R5d0NqV2gyVk9QejloWG5LYXhmNk1Oc2stQ2d3eG42eGhuZndRcmg0bFVkUEk3M2NjcGt2cVNhazdwMzlyQ3NRc0psMVhEdFE4eDVNWUtuNjRJWVRMaFFsX0ZaQjlLRmpSb2NwZlRKaE5fQXpHT2pJM2lyRjdhV2UzT1lTc0VDdlBDSkRHTFpHR2hia1lWeEE1eHdJWXJMMFB1dFhIX2tGVkotbld3OGF2UkhXLTNsb3VZbFBkTWxjY0QzSjlMQS1TX0pEaTkzN0lZcHlwQ0lwOFoyTlNyTQ?oc=5

Is Occidental Petroleum Still a Buy Now that WTI's Down to $70 a Barrel? - The Globe and Mail

Oxy is more exposed to volatile crude oil prices than larger integrated oil and gas giants.

But oil remains far above its breakeven levels for supporting its capex and dividends.

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) , the oil and gas giant more commonly known as Oxy, hit a 52-week high of $67.45 per share on March 31. That year-to-date gain of nearly 60% was largely driven by the Middle East conflict's impact on oil prices.

But as of this writing, Oxy's stock trades at about $50. It pulled back as WTI crude oil prices retreated from a four-year high of $112.25 per barrel in mid-May to around $70. Let's see why Oxy's stock is tightly tethered to crude oil prices -- and if it's still worth buying today.

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Oxy is less diversified than integrated energy giants like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) . While ExxonMobil and Chevron operate a diverse mix of upstream, midstream, and downstream businesses, Oxy generates most of its revenue from its upstream business -- which handles the exploration, drilling, and extraction of oil and natural gas.

A smaller percentage of Oxy's revenue comes from its midstream business, which operates oil and gas pipelines . A small but growing sliver of its top line comes from its low-carbon ventures business, which develops carbon capture and direct air capture technologies.

Generally speaking, rising oil prices provide the strongest tailwinds for upstream companies, as their revenue growth will easily outpace operating expenses. But when oil prices decline, their expenses can rise faster than their revenues.

So when crude oil prices surged earlier this year, Oxy's stock outperformed ExxonMobil and Chevron. However, Oxy underperformed both energy giants over the past month after a ceasefire and peace talks between the U.S. and Iran reduced crude oil prices.

To sustain its current capital expenditures and dividends, Oxy needs oil to remain above $40- $45 per barrel. Its free cash flow also significantly increases at above $60 per barrel.

WTI was below $60 per barrel throughout most of 2025 and early 2026, but it hasn't fallen below $45 since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Therefore, Oxy's profits should continue rising unless a global recession triggers another historical collapse in oil demand.

Oxy's stock still looks cheap at 10 times forward earnings, but that multiple could rise if analysts lower their near-term forecasts to reflect declining oil prices. That said, its business is broadly stable, and it's taken major steps to reduce its debt from its poorly timed $55 billion acquisition of Anadarko in 2019. It's a safe oil stock to hold right now, but I'd prefer to invest in more diversified energy plays like ExxonMobil and Chevron in this choppy market.

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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool recommends Occidental Petroleum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7AFBVV95cUxPOFVoTWFmal9JV2ctb0R5d0NqV2gyVk9QejloWG5LYXhmNk1Oc2stQ2d3eG42eGhuZndRcmg0bFVkUEk3M2NjcGt2cVNhazdwMzlyQ3NRc0psMVhEdFE4eDVNWUtuNjRJWVRMaFFsX0ZaQjlLRmpSb2NwZlRKaE5fQXpHT2pJM2lyRjdhV2UzT1lTc0VDdlBDSkRHTFpHR2hia1lWeEE1eHdJWXJMMFB1dFhIX2tGVkotbld3OGF2UkhXLTNsb3VZbFBkTWxjY0QzSjlMQS1TX0pEaTkzN0lZcHlwQ0lwOFoyTlNyTQ?oc=5