핵심요약

• S&P 500 지수는 +0.65% 상승하며 시장 전반의 긍정적인 분위기를 형성했습니다.
• 나스닥 100 지수는 +1.15% 상승하여 기술주 중심의 강세가 두드러졌습니다.
• 10년물 T-note 수익률은 -4bp 하락했으며, 이는 연준의 금리 인상 기대감이 후퇴했음을 반영합니다.
• 7월 최종 수요 PPI는 시장 예상치보다 약한 +4.7% y/y로 발표되어 인플레이션 압력이 완화되었음을 시사했습니다.

도입

이번 기사는 미국 PPI 보고서가 시장에 미친 영향과 이것이 금융 시장 및 개별 기술주에 어떻게 반영되었는지를 분석합니다. 이는 현재 인플레이션 환경 속에서 연준의 통화 정책 방향과 글로벌 자산 시장의 움직임을 이해하는 데 중요한 단서를 제공합니다.

본문 1: 인플레이션 지표와 금리 기대의 변화

이번 PPI 보고서는 시장 예상치를 하회하는 수치로 발표되어 인플레이션 압력이 완화되고 있음을 시사했습니다. 특히 7월 최종 수요 PPI는 전월 대비 변동은 없었으나 전년 대비 +4.7% y/y로, 시장 예상치인 +4.9% y/y보다 낮았습니다. 이는 인플레이션 둔화에 대한 기대감을 높여 연준의 통화 정책 방향에 대한 시장의 시각을 변화시켰습니다. 이러한 인플레이션 데이터의 약화는 10년물 T-note 수익률을 -4bp 하락시키는 요인으로 작용했으며, 시장 참여자들은 9월 연방준비제도(Fed)의 금리 인상 기대치를 기존 40%에서 35%로 하향 조정했습니다. 이는 금리 인상 사이클의 종료 가능성에 무게를 실어주며 자금 시장에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤습니다.

본문 2: 섹터별 차별화된 시장 반응

주식 시장은 전반적인 호조 속에서도 섹터별로 뚜렷한 차별화를 보였습니다. 반도체 관련 종목들은 강세를 보였는데, iShares 반도체 ETF는 +0.8% 상승했습니다. 이는 미국 반도체 섹터가 여전히 강력한 성장 동력을 가지고 있음을 보여줍니다. 그러나 개별 종목 차원에서는 상반된 움직임이 관찰되었습니다. Cisco Systems는 실망스러운 가이던스로 인해 -8% 하락했으며, Cerebras Systems는 하드웨어 사업의 판매 감소로 인해 -12% 급락했습니다. 이는 거시 경제 환경이 긍정적일지라도 개별 기업의 실적 및 사업 부문별 리스크에 따라 주가가 크게 달라질 수 있음을 보여줍니다. 또한, 지정학적 불안정성 감소로 인해 원유 가격이 -2% 하락하면서 유가 관련 리스크가 완화되어 시장 전반에 지지 요인이 되었습니다.

본문 3: 거시 환경 및 장기 전망

PPI 보고서의 약세는 단기적으로 금리 인하 기대감을 높였으나, 장기적인 관점에서는 여전히 인플레이션 목표치인 2%를 상회하는 수준에 머물러 있습니다. 따라서 시장은 향후 인플레이션 둔화의 속도와 연준의 추가적인 통화 정책 방향에 대해 지속적으로 주목해야 합니다. 또한, 지정학적 리스크가 완화되었음에도 불구하고, 에너지 가격의 변동성은 여전히 시장의 주요 변수로 남아있습니다. 향후 시장은 인플레이션 데이터의 지속적인 추세와 지정학적 상황의 안정성에 따라 변동성이 커질 수 있습니다.

결론

이번 PPI 보고서는 인플레이션 둔화의 신호로 해석되어 시장에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤습니다. 그러나 개별 기업의 실적과 지정학적 요인에 따라 주식 시장의 움직임은 다각적으로 분석되어야 합니다. 향후 시장은 연준의 통화 정책 결정과 글로벌 에너지 시장의 변동성에 따라 추가적인 불확실성이 존재할 수 있음을 염두에 두어야 합니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3839147/stocks-rally-on-the-favorable-us-ppi-report?.tsrc=rss

Stocks Rally on the Favorable US PPI Report

The S&P 500 Index ( $SPX ) ( SPY ) on Thursday rose +0.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( $DOWI ) ( DIA ) rose +0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ( $IUXX ) ( QQQ ) rose +1.15%. September E-mini S&P futures ( ESU26 ) rose +0.68%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures ( NQU26 ) rose +1.18%.

Stocks rallied on the favorable PPI report, which prompted a -4 bp decline in the 10-year T-note yield and a drop in expectations for a Fed rate hike in September to 35% from 40% on Wednesday. Stocks also saw support from a drop of more than -2% in crude oil prices, amid a lack of any new US or Iranian military attacks in the Persian Gulf.

US tech stocks saw carry-over support from an overnight +3.6% rally in the South Korean Kospi index, driven in part by a more than +5% rally in Samsung Electronics and chip-maker SK Hynix. US chip stocks were strong with a +0.8% rally in the iShares Semiconductor ETF. However, US tech stocks were undercut by an -8% drop in Cisco Systems after disappointing guidance and a more than -12% decline in Cerebras Systems (CBRS) due to a decline in sales at its hardware business.

Thursday’s US PPI report was favorable. The July US final-demand PPI report of unchanged m/m and +4.7% y/y was weaker than market expectations of +0.2% m/m and +4.9% y/y. The July core PPI report of +0.2% m/m was weaker than market expectations of +0.3%, although the year-on-year figure of +4.2% y/y was slightly stronger than market expectations of +4.1% y/y. The July PPI of +4.7% y/y was down from May’s 3.5-year peak of +5.9% y/y but was still far above the Fed’s inflation target of +2%.

Thursday’s PPI report followed Wednesday’s favorable July US CPI report, when the July core CPI fell to match the 5.5-year low of +2.5% y/y originally posted early this year. Meanwhile, the nominal CPI fell to +3.4% from June’s +3.5% but remained well above the 5.5-year low of +2.3% posted last year.

Sep WTI crude oil prices ( CLU26 ) fell more than -2% on the lack of any new military strikes in the Persian Gulf region and on reports that the Trump administration is pivoting to using the naval blockade to apply economic pressure on Iran rather than new military attacks. There is no sign of any progress between the US and Iran on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although some ships are still getting through by turning off their transponders and hoping for the best.

An Iranian military spokesperson said Thursday that no ship can safely pass the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s authorization and supervision and that President Trump’s claims of control over the Strait are “nothing more than lies.” The Iranian statement was in response to President Trump's comment late Tuesday that the US has “total control over the Hormuz Strait” and that “we own it.”

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 85% of the 446 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data.

The markets are discounting a 35% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16, down from 40% on Wednesday and 51% on Tuesday.

Overseas stock markets closed mixed on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.18%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.50%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.16%.

September 10-year T-notes ( ZNU6 ) rose +9.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.4 bp to 4.639%. T-note prices received a boost from the favorable PPI report. Also, the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate fell -0.6 bp to 2.260%.

Supply pressures undercut T-note prices as the Treasury sold $35 billion of 30-year T-bonds. The T-bond sale carried an auction yield of 5.216%, the highest since 2001. Investors have recently demanded higher Treasury yields due to the need to finance the US government’s massive budget deficit, high inflation, Fed Chair Warsh's lack of policy guidance, and market uncertainty about the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve.

European government bond yields fell. The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.9 bp to 3.131%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.7 bp to 4.953%.

Markets are discounting a 90% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.

The Magnificent Seven all closed higher on Thursday except for Amazon ( AMZN ), which fell -0.8%. Tesla ( TSLA ) rose more than +3%, and Meta ( META ) rose more than +2%.

Chip stocks were mostly higher, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) closing up +0.8%. Chip leaders included Micron Technology ( MU ), up more than +4%, and Intel ( INTC ) and Lam Research ( LRCX ), both up more than +3%.

Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) fell more than -8% after disappointing guidance related to AI-tied networking gear sales.

Cerebus Systems ( CBRS ) fell more than -12% after delivering disappointing guidance of $215 million in Q3. The sell-off came despite the report that revenue from its cloud division nearly quadrupled to $127.7 million, exceeding its hardware business. The company designs and sells chips and also offers cloud computing.

Salesforce ( CRM ) rallied more than +4% after JPMorgan rated the company overweight, saying that AI-Saas implications for the company are overblown.

StubHub ( STUB ) fell more than -10% after a disappointing earnings report.

JD.com’s US-listed ADR ( JD ) fell more than -7% after the Chinese online retailer reported a quarterly revenue decline, the first since it went public in 2014.

Vail Resorts ( MTN ) fell -2% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a sell rating.

Liberty Live Holdings (LLYVK).

Source: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3839147/stocks-rally-on-the-favorable-us-ppi-report?.tsrc=rss