핵심요약

• 김정은 위원장은 핵무기 확장을 '지수적 속도로' 진행할 것이라고 강조했습니다.
• 북한은 새로운 5,000톤급 구축함에서 핵능력 크루즈 미사일 발사 테스트를 시작했습니다.
• 북한의 핵무기 체제는 철도 및 도로 이동식 발사대, 지하 시설, 그리고 확장 중인 잠수함 함대를 포함해 첫 번째 타격을 견딜 수 있도록 설계되었습니다.

도입

이번 기사는 북한의 핵무기 확장이 국제 안보 환경에 미치는 영향과 투자자들에게 어떤 의미를 가지는지 분석하는 데 중요합니다. 특히, 김정은 위원장의 최근 발언과 북한의 군사적 전략 변화가 지역 안정성과 글로벌 경제에 어떤 영향을 미칠지 이해하는 데 도움이 됩니다.

본문 1: 북한의 핵무기 확장의 전략적 배경

김정은 위원장은 북한의 핵무기 확장이 '지수적 속도로' 진행되어야 한다고 강조했습니다. 이는 미국과 그 동맹국으로부터의 위협이 증가하고 있다고 언급하며, 북한의 핵무기 체제가 첫 번째 타격을 견딜 수 있도록 설계되었음을 보여줍니다. 분석가들은 북한이 이라에서 본 것처럼 핵무기 체제가 완전히 운영되지 않은 국가가 공격받을 가능성이 높다고 지적했습니다. 이는 북한이 핵무기 확장을 통해 자신의 안보를 보장하려는 전략적 의도를 반영합니다.

본문 2: 군사적 기술의 발전과 국제적 반응

북한은 새로운 5,000톤급 구축함에서 핵능력 크루즈 미사일 발사 테스트를 시작했습니다. 이는 북한의 군사적 기술이 급속히 발전하고 있음을 보여주며, 국제 사회의 우려를 증폭시키고 있습니다. 특히, 이 테스트는 북한이 핵무기를 다양한 플랫폼에 탑재할 수 있는 능력을 보유하고 있음을 시사합니다. 이는 지역 안정성에 대한 위협을 높이며, 국제 사회의 대응이 더욱 강화될 가능성을 높입니다.

결론

김정은 위원장의 최근 발언과 북한의 군사적 전략 변화는 국제 안보 환경에 큰 영향을 미칠 전망입니다. 투자자들은 북한의 핵무기 확장이 지역 안정성과 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 합니다. 특히, 북한의 군사적 기술 발전과 국제 사회의 대응이 어떻게 변화할지 예측하는 것이 중요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPWTQ0a3F0MGRmOGZ1NWItaV9DNnlnY0dab18yS3M2S3hCSW5SbDdCa1JmdzNBdk5GTm9YbVNCX2Q2aFVTRTlsZGNUUUdqNVVhY0dLVUVzUVBJQ09nZ3NBT2JzRTdTTXQxY3NuZUVraWp5WVlPUlUyX095cG45Tm1nNDBBMEZhT2ZFNG1NT1hB?oc=5

North Korea’s ‘exponential’ nuclear program: why Kim Jong-un is racing to expand his arsenal - The Guardian

The heightened rhetoric from Pyongyang has left analysts asking why North Korea appears to need so many nuclear weapons

A t a ruling Workers’ party meeting that concluded this week, Kim Jong-un declared that steadily expanding North Korea’s nuclear forces was the “most correct and unique way” to cope with an increasingly unstable world, citing what he described as growing threats from the US and its allies.

The remarks were just the latest in a recent stream of commentary from North Korea’s leadership that has seen Kim pledge to equip warships with nuclear missiles, double weapons grade production and expand the country’s nuclear arsenal at “an exponential rate”.

North Korea often makes exaggerated claims about the strength of their defence capabilities, but behind the heightened rhetoric, analysts say the question is no longer whether North Korea has nuclear weapons, but why it appears to need so many.

“It is a force so large and so dispersed that no single strike could eliminate it, and [appears] increasingly difficult to dismantle through diplomacy,” says Peter Ward, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute in Seoul, who believes North Korea is using the spread of its arsenal to protect against intervention of the kind seen in Iran.

“We don’t know where all of them are. We don’t know what they might do. And their threats are deliberately vague.”

The recent US-led strikes on Iran reinforced a lesson North Korea has long since absorbed: states that stop short of a fully operational nuclear arsenal invite attack rather than deterrence.

“A country that remains at the threshold level is drawing a big fat target on its back”, says Ward.

Designed to survive a first strike, North Korea’s arsenal spans rail and road-mobile launchers , hardened underground facilities and an expanding submarine fleet.

This year North Korea began test-firing nuclear-capable cruise missiles from a new 5,000-tonne destroyer, and on Wednesday Kim pledged that the country would build another two warships every year for the next five years.

Analysts say Pyongyang believes it needs a much larger arsenal to match the scale and complexity of the forces aligned against it. “It faces the US nuclear umbrella, combined US-South Korean forces and trilateral cooperation with Japan,” said Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the state-funded Korea Institute for National Unification. “It goes beyond minimum deterrence.”

Nuclear weapons are now also embedded in the country’s constitution. A revision earlier this year gave Kim constitutional command over nuclear forces and the power to delegate launch authority to a separate command, a move analysts interpret as a safeguard against a decapitation strike.

Lee Ho Ryung, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses (KIDA), says Pyongyang was seeking to cement the idea that denuclearisation no longer applied to North Korea and to build a level of capability that would force Washington to take it seriously.

“Their point is that this is not something that can be reduced through negotiations right now”, she says.

Officially, denuclearisation remains Seoul’s stated objective when it comes to dealing with the North. South Korea’s president, Lee Jae Myung, has made it a central plank of his government’s policy.

In May, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reaffirmed what the White House described as a “shared goal” of denuclearising North Korea. But when Xi travelled to Pyongyang , Chinese readouts made no mention of it.

North Korea’s deepening military ties with Russia and its strengthened relationship with China have further insulated Pyongyang from the kind of external pressure that once made negotiations conceivable. The three states , despite their differences, share an interest in checking American power.

KIDA’s Lee Ho Ryung says Washington and Seoul would continue to uphold denuclearisation as their formal objective, but in practice the focus was likely to shift towards arms control – limiting and gradually reducing the arsenal rather than eliminating it.

“In the end,” she says, “there may be no other path.”

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPWTQ0a3F0MGRmOGZ1NWItaV9DNnlnY0dab18yS3M2S3hCSW5SbDdCa1JmdzNBdk5GTm9YbVNCX2Q2aFVTRTlsZGNUUUdqNVVhY0dLVUVzUVBJQ09nZ3NBT2JzRTdTTXQxY3NuZUVraWp5WVlPUlUyX095cG45Tm1nNDBBMEZhT2ZFNG1NT1hB?oc=5