미국-이란 MOU 체결 1주년, 호르무즈 해협 통행량 2배 증가
One week in, what exactly are America and Iran getting from their agreement? - CNN
미국과 이란의 합의로 호르무즈 해협의 항해가 일시적으로 증가했지만, 이란의 드론 공격 등 지속적인 긴장으로 인해 중립적인 입장을 유지해야 합니다.
핵심 요약
호르무즈 해협 선박 통행량 70회로 증가했지만, 이란 드론 공격으로 긴장 지속.
미국-이란 MOU 체결 1주년, 투자자들에게 의미하는 바
핵심요약
- 호르무즈 해협 선박 통행량 수요일에 70회 기록, 화요일에 비해 2배 증가
- 이란 허가 요구 및 지뢰로 인해 해협 완전히 개방되지 않음
- 목요일에 화물선이 이란 드론에 공격당하며 지속되는 긴장
- MOU는 지속 가능한 평화가 아닌 시간 벌이를 위한 수단으로 분석
- 미국과 이란 모두 경제적 비용을 이유로 전쟁 재개 불능 상태
도입
미국과 이란의 MOU 체결 1주년을 맞이하며, 투자자들은 이 협정이 지역 안정성에 미치는 영향을 주목하고 있습니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협의 통행량 증가와 지속되는 긴장이 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다. 이 협정이 장기적인 평화로 이어질지, 아니면 일시적인 정전으로 그칠지에 대한 불확실성이 투자 결정에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.
본문 1: 호르무즈 해협 통행량 증가와 에너지 시장 영향
호르무즈 해협의 선박 통행량이 수요일에 70회로 증가하며, 화요일에 비해 두 배로 늘었습니다. 이는 에너지 수출에 긍정적인 신호로 해석될 수 있습니다. 그러나 이란의 허가 요구와 지뢰로 인해 해협이 완전히 개방되지 않았으며, 이는 에너지 시장에 변동성을 가져올 수 있습니다. 특히 중동 지역에서 에너지 수출이 증가함에 따라, 호르무즈 해협의 안정성이 에너지 가격에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 지켜볼 필요가 있습니다. 이는 에너지 기업의 수익성에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 투자자들은 이 점을 고려해야 합니다.
본문 2: 지속되는 긴장과 정치적 배경
MOU 체결 이후에도 이란 드론에 의한 화물선 공격이 발생하며, 지속되는 긴장이 우려됩니다. 이는 미국과 이란 간의 정치적 배경과도 관련이 있습니다. 미국은 중동에서의 군사적 비용을 줄이고자 하며, 이란은 경제 제재 해제를 통해 이득을 얻고자 합니다. 이러한 정치적 배경이 MOU의 지속 가능성에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 투자자들은 이 점을 고려해야 합니다. 특히 중동 지역의 정치적 불안정이 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다.
본문 3: 장기적인 평화 가능성 및 투자 전략
MOU가 장기적인 평화로 이어질지, 아니면 일시적인 정전으로 그칠지에 대한 불확실성이 있습니다. 이는 투자 전략에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히 에너지 기업의 수익성에 미치는 영향을 고려할 때, 호르무즈 해협의 안정성과 정치적 배경이 장기적인 투자 결정에 중요한 변수가 될 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이 점을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정할 필요가 있습니다.
결론
미국과 이란의 MOU 체결 1주년을 맞이하며, 호르무즈 해협의 통행량 증가와 지속되는 긴장이 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다. MOU가 장기적인 평화로 이어질지, 아니면 일시적인 정전으로 그칠지에 대한 불확실성이 투자 결정에 영향을 미치고 있습니다. 투자자들은 정치적 배경과 에너지 시장의 변동성을 고려하여 전략을 수립할 필요가 있습니다.
Original Article
One week in, what exactly are America and Iran getting from their agreement? - CNN
The big news is that the United States and Iran are no longer openly at war. That is, in itself, a win that likely saved lives a week after President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding in France to halt the fighting. That pause was never a given, considering a half-century of hatred between Washington and Tehran and a regional history of eviscerated peace deals. So far, the MOU, a 14-point framework for talks on a permanent peace, has also survived the suspicions of many US lawmakers that it enshrines an American defeat. That’s because the costs of plunging back into the conflict now are prohibitive for both the US and Iran and that comes against the backdrop of some heady domestic political winds ahead of the midterms. Trump revealed last week that he’s not prepared to pay the economic price of more war. And why would Iran break the truce now, since it’s getting an immediate flow of benefits without having to give up much of its core bargaining position? Although the agreement may point to an off-ramp from the war, it’s not a durable peace. It’s a classic Trumpian device to buy time while shelving tough political choices for later. Still, benefits for both sides are rolling out. The Strait of Hormuz is open — mostly Arguably, the United States’ most tangible benefit from the MOU comes from Iran reopening the strait. Vessel traffic through the strait has picked up dramatically in recent days, with 70 crossings on Wednesday, according to Kpler, which tracks activity using transponder and satellite data. That’s more than double Tuesday’s total, although still lower than the 100+ crossings typical before the war started. The strait isn’t fully reopen: Iran continues to require permits to travel along the northern corridor of the around 23-mile-wide channel, and mines in the center restrict traffic to a single shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast. In a sign of persistent tensions, a cargo vessel was struck by an Iranian drone in the strait on Thursday, a US official told CNN. The incident disrupted an operation to evacuate thousands of seafarers from vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf since the war broke out. But the increasing tanker traffic is an encouraging step toward normalization of global oil flows. The strait’s closure created the largest oil shock in history and is expected to cost the world a record 1.6 billion barrels of oil supply, according to JPMorgan. That created a double-barreled effect of high prices and dramatically reduced oil inventories that sent consumer sentiment plunging to record lows and threatened to disrupt the US economy with oil shortages – a problem that Trump last week acknowledged could have led to “economic catastrophe” that would have earned him comparisons to Depression-era President Herbert Hoover. Reopening the strait – which was fully open before the war – won’t immediately solve either of those problems. And the agreement to allow vessels to cross toll-free lasts just 60 days from last Thursday’s signing. Afterward, Iran (and, possibly, Oman) could charge tolls, which have amounted to around $1 to $2 a barrel – potentially giving Iran access to millions of dollars in revenue each day. Iran is selling oil again The good news about the strait’s reopening comes with the caveat that Iran can start selling oil again. And unlike before the war, Iran can sell to literally anyone after the US Treasury waived its sanctions. Many critics worry that Iran will quickly seek to rebuild its shattered military, replenish its drone and missile programs and revive the threat of its proxy network that includes Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran has already started to ship oil again, although there’s yet scant evidence that it’s selling to anyone but China. It successfully exported 3.8 million barrels of oil from the Strait of Hormuz last week, immediately after the US agreed to end its naval blockade, according to maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers. It has ramped up its activity considerably since then. It can probably sell roughly 2 million barrels of oil a day – about a third more than before the war, according to Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at consultancy Rystad. And because those sales would be on the up-and-up, Iran would no longer need to offer steep discounts. Other financial incentives Iran has insisted that it won’t agree to any long-term deal until it gains access to more than $100 billion of assets currently frozen in banks around the world. US officials told CNN last week that no frozen funds will be released until Iran makes good on its commitments. The MOU states that Iran’s frozen funds and assets will be made “fully available” for use by Iran’s central bank but does not detail timing or scope. The agreement could also establish a $300 billion investment fund, which could help the country rebuild. The details remain murky, but the investment fund would be financed privately and not by US taxpayers, according to the administration. Trump told reporters at the G7 meeting last week that other countries and financiers will be able to invest in rebuilding Iran’s economy, but he doubts foreign investors will have significant interest for quite some time. The agreement envisages a final deal removing sanctions on Iran to allow it to freely trade with the rest of the world. Some foreign financial institutions could be more willing to do business with Iran, though many will probably hesitate unless the US Treasury issues specific licenses for particular transactions. A major caveat: It’s not clear how much authority Trump has to lift sanctions unilaterally. A skeptical Congress may have to approve some sanctions relief. The inspections imbroglio to come Trump said on social media this week that UN nuclear inspectors would be allowed access to Iran for “Infinity!!!” Vice President JD Vance hailed Tehran’s agreement to let inspectors in as a “major milestone.” The reality is more complex. It’s not clear that the Islamic Republic has agreed to anything. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei suggested that Tehran was merely recognizing its obligations to the Non-Proliferation Treaty after it suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency in the wake of US bombardment of its nuclear sites last year. The IAEA argues that the MOU requires it to play a key role. Iran counters that any inspections must await a final deal. Showdowns over international inspectors caused years of disputes between the US and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and more recently Iran. Both sides dug in on the specific legal authority and mandates for UN teams, their make-up and whether they had freedom to visit all nuclear or weapons of mass destruction sites, including suspected undeclared locations. Iran is almost certain to roll out the old playbook. And a final deal that lacks stringent verification procedures to monitor Iran’s compliance will not be worth the paper that it’s printed on. Lebanon could tear the deal down The MOU requires the immediate and permanent halting of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. But that country, repeatedly torn apart by civil war and a perpetual battleground between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, could be the deal’s most vulnerable pillar. Trump’s critics, especially in Israel, worry that the agreement effectively allows Iran to repair a proxy force diminished by months of Israeli pummeling. By convincing Trump to include Lebanon, Iran can pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to curtail Israeli military action — or risk the collapse of a deal hugely important to Trump, symbolically, politically and economically. However, Israel does not consider itself bound by the deal. Past Israel-Hezbollah ceasefires in Lebanon have often failed, and, in the run-up to the MOU, Israeli forces made their deepest incursions into Lebanon in the past quarter century. The Trump administration and the Netanyahu team have made no secret of raw feelings over the war’s end. And Israel’s insistence that it maintains the freedom to act to protect its own security in Lebanon — and across the Middle East — will test Trump’s authority as US talks with Iran deepen. And Iran is virtually certain to remind everyone it’s holding a new ace — the threat of closing the strait.