캐시 우드, 스페이스X 추가 매수? 투자 시 고려할 점
Cathie Wood Just Bought More SpaceX Stock. Here's Why I Wouldn't Copy Her
이 뉴스는 장기적인 성장 잠재력은 높으나, 단기적인 수익성 불확실성 때문에 신중한 접근이 필요합니다.
핵심 요약
SpaceX는 Starlink 구독자 10.3백만 명과 AI 및 국방 계약을 통해 성장하고 있으나, 높은 투자 비용으로 인해 단기적인 수익성은 불확실합니다.
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Original Article
Cathie Wood Just Bought More SpaceX Stock. Here's Why I Wouldn't Copy Her
Space Exploration Technologies ( SPCX +2.58% ) has grand ambitions, including sending humans to Mars. This may require breakthroughs in space travel even more impressive than those the company has already achieved. It's not surprising, then, that Ark Investment Management -- a firm led by the famous investor Cathie Wood, a staunch believer in the power of innovation -- is doubling down on SpaceX stock. The space company is the fourth-largest holding across Ark Investment Management's combined portfolio, with the firm buying more shares as recently as July 22. However, I wouldn't follow in Wood's footsteps on this one. Here's why I am not ready to buy SpaceX stock yet.
First, let's give credit where credit is due. SpaceX has already revolutionized space travel and is currently a leader in providing orbital launch services to U.S. government agencies. The company is still making progress. SpaceX is developing a next-gen rocket, Starship, that could significantly reduce launch costs. SpaceX will make progress elsewhere thanks to Starship, including in its Starlink segment, where it provides internet services through a constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites. Starship will help SpaceX launch substantially more satellites into orbit, thereby improving its services and expanding its addressable market.
SpaceX's artificial intelligence (AI) business also seems to be slowly taking off. The company has a deal in place to provide Alphabet ( GOOG -6.89% ) ( GOOGL -7.12% ) with compute capacity. SpaceX is also reportedly in talks to provide computing power to the U.S. Department of Defense in a potential multi-billion-dollar deal. Over the next few years, SpaceX could record growing revenue thanks to Starlink, which already boasts 10.3 million subscribers, a number that should keep growing at a good clip. We could also see revenue growth in its space and AI units ramping up.
However, SpaceX likely won't be consistently profitable anytime soon. The company is investing heavily to tap into what it sees as transformational opportunities. That's especially true in its AI business, where it is spending more on capex than in its two other segments combined. Whether or not that's the right move, time will tell. But for a company worth $1.6 trillion, it's hard to justify a revenue of just $4.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026, which increased by just 15% year over year.
At its current valuation, SpaceX's revenue should either be much higher or should be growing much faster (or both). Note that the company's price-to-sales ratio is an incredible 78.09 as of this writing. That's far too high by any standard, particularly since the reasonably valued range typically starts below "2." All of this suggests the market is already factoring in SpaceX's success across its connectivity and, especially, its AI businesses, and the stock could decline over the next few years as it faces increased competition. That's why the company's shares aren't attractive right now. They'd have to drop significantly from current levels before becoming so.