핵심요약

• 스페이스X의 현재 시장 가치는 약 2조 2천억 달러
• 인공지능 부문은 26조 5천억 달러 시장을 공략 중
• 주가는 영업이익의 100배 이상으로 과대평가 우려
• 평균 IPO 주식의 1년 수익률은 -1.7% (2011년 이후)
• 최근 4년 IPO 평균 수익률은 두 자리 수 손실

도입

스페이스X의 급성장과 함께 인공지능 시장의 잠재력을 분석하는 것은 투자자에게 중요한 과제입니다. 특히 IPO 주식의 역사적 패턴과 높은 배수에 대한 우려가 결합되며, 시장 참여자들은 신규 기업의 가능성에 주목하고 있습니다. 이번 분석은 스페이스X의 현재 상태와 미래 전망을 종합적으로 평가할 것입니다.

본문 1: 스페이스X의 과대평가 위험

스페이스X의 현재 주가는 영업이익의 100배 이상으로 거래되고 있습니다. 이는 전통적인 가치 평가 기준에서 매우 높은 수준으로, 향후 성장 가능성이 과대 평가되었을 가능성을 시사합니다. 역사적으로 IPO 주식은 평균 1년 수익률이 -1.7%로, 특히 최근 4년 동안은 두 자리 수 손실이 지속되었습니다. 이는 스페이스X의 주가도 비슷한 패턴을 따라갈 가능성을 높입니다. 이러한 점에서 투자자들은 높은 배수에 대한 주의가 필요합니다.

본문 2: 인공지능 시장의 성장 가능성

인공지능 부문은 26조 5천억 달러의 시장을 공략하고 있으며, 이는 스페이스X의 핵심 성장 동력으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 그러나 이 부문의 성장은 여전히 초기 단계이며, 기술적 및 시장적 리스크가 존재합니다. 특히 경쟁사들의 진입과 기술 발전 속도 등이 주요 변수로 작용할 것입니다. 장기적으로는 인공지능 시장의 확대가 스페이스X의 가치 상승에 기여할 수 있지만, 단기적인 변동성도 고려해야 합니다.

본문 3: 신규 기업의 역전 가능성

다른 기업이 현재 스페이스X의 2/3 수준으로 평가받고 있지만, 12개월 내 역전할 전망입니다. 이는 인공지능 시장의 경쟁 구조가 빠르게 변화하고 있음을 반영하며, 투자자들은 신규 기업의 성장을 주시해야 합니다. 특히 기술 혁신과 시장 점유율 확대가 주요 성공 요인으로 작용할 것입니다. 장기적으로는 인공지능 시장의 성장세가 지속될 전망이지만, 단기적인 주가 변동성에 대한 대비가 필요합니다.

결론

스페이스X의 현재 높은 평가와 인공지능 시장의 성장 가능성을 종합적으로 고려할 때, 투자자들은 신중한 접근이 필요합니다. 특히 IPO 주식의 역사적 패턴과 기술적 리스크를 고려할 때, 장기적인 전망보다는 단기적인 변동성에 대한 대비가 중요합니다. 향후 인공지능 시장의 동향과 경쟁사들의 움직임을 주시하는 것이 필수적입니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/23/1-massively-undervalued-artificial-intelligence-ai/?.tsrc=rss

1 Massively Undervalued Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock That Could Be Worth More Than SpaceX Within 12 Months

Space Exploration Technologies ( SPCX 16.43% ) , better known as SpaceX, has rocketed higher from its initial public offering. At one point, it was the fifth-most valuable publicly traded company. And while the stock has eased back from its peak, the market still values the company at around $2.2 trillion as of this writing.

Indeed, there's no shortage of investor excitement for SpaceX. The massive company includes businesses across rocket launch services, satellite internet and connectivity, artificial intelligence (AI), and cloud computing. (It's also the owner of X, formerly Twitter.) The biggest opportunity for the company appears to be in artificial intelligence , which SpaceX management says represents a $26.5 trillion market.

But another company may be able to capitalize on that opportunity even better. That company is currently worth about two-thirds as much as SpaceX, but I predict their positions will reverse within 12 months. Here's why.

Where does SpaceX head from here?

SpaceX was one of the most anticipated IPOs in recent history, and the combination of high market interest and a low initial float helped propel the stock higher in the first few days of trading. But investors expecting the stock to remain elevated could be in for a bumpy ride.

The track record for IPOs in general isn't very good. Not only have stocks historically underperformed the market on average in the years that followed the close of their first trading days, but their performance has also worsened in recent years. Since 2011, the average IPO stock has delivered a one-year return of negative 1.7% following its first close. In each of the last four years, however, that negative average return has fallen into double-digit percentage territory.

A couple of other factors are also working against SpaceX's stock price.

First, the company's valuation is extremely high. It trades for well over 100 times its sales at its share price as of this writing. While it's expected to grow sales quickly this year, thanks in large part to a couple of deals to lease compute power to Anthropic and Alphabet , it will need to grow its top line at an unprecedented rate for a company of its size over the next five to 10 years to justify its current valuation.

CEO Elon Musk seems to think that's within the realm of possibility. He said SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in revenue as soon as 2030 in a post on X that he later deleted. Based on Musk's track record of excessive optimism about timelines, investors should take that prediction with a big grain of salt.

The second challenge for the stock is that a large number of shares will enter the market over the next 12 months. SpaceX's IPO only issued about 4% of the total SpaceX shares. As a series of lockup periods expire, many of the company's early investors will likely look to liquidate some or all of their holdings, putting some selling pressure on the stock.

As such, I expect SpaceX will trade lower than its current valuation 12 months from now. There's a much better AI opportunity for investors in today's market, and it's currently worth about $800 billion less than SpaceX, with an incredibly attractive valuation.

The stock that could be worth more than SpaceX within 12 months

While SpaceX sees an incredibly large opportunity in AI, Meta Platforms ( META 2.33% ) is poised to actually produce significant financial gains from continued advancements in AI technology. The market appears to be undervaluing that opportunity today, making the stock a great buy for long-term investors.

AI is at the core of everything Meta does. Algorithmically curated content and ad targeting drive engagement and monetization. And recent investments have produced excellent results on both ends. Meta's ad revenue climbed 33% in 2026's first quarter, accelerating from 24% growth in the previous quarter and 22% growth in 2025.

During the Q1 earnings call, management highlighted improvements to its AI systems that drove both increased time spent, particularly on video, and higher conversion rates for advertisements. Overall, integrating large language model (LLM) capabilities, such as the ability to understand what content is about rather than relying on rote machine learning models, has produced significant gains. And management says there's still plenty of room to improve both engagement and ad conversions.

AI also opens new opportunities for Meta. It's developing its personal AI assistant, Meta AI, which it could monetize via ads or subscriptions. It's also testing Business AIs in WhatsApp, which makes it easy for small businesses to handle customer support and sales via Meta's messaging apps. It's using AI to expand available content through auto translation and dubbing. Ultimately, AI-generated or AI-assisted content could create feeds tailored to each user on Meta's platforms.

Despite its strong revenue growth, investors' concerns about Meta's massive planned outlays on AI infrastructure have held the stock back. It expects capex of $125 billion and $145 billion in 2026, up from about $72 billion last year.

Yet management is guiding for operating income to continue to climb despite that higher spending. The stock currently trades for about 17 times forward earnings expectations. That looks incredibly undervalued relative to the business's continued growth and the opportunities ahead. I don't think it will be long before the market changes its view on Meta stock and sends its value higher, while SpaceX stock declines.

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/23/1-massively-undervalued-artificial-intelligence-ai/?.tsrc=rss