빌 애크먼, '2000년 버크셔 하사웨이와 같은 기회' 3개 종목 공개
Bill Ackman Says These 3 Stocks Could Be Like Buying Berkshire Hathaway in 2000
빌 애크먼의 장기적 추천이 단기적 주가 변동에 영향을 미치지 않습니다.
핵심 요약
빌 애크먼은 세 종목을 2000년 버크셔 하사웨이와 같은 기회라고 언급하며, 장기적인 가치 투자의 가능성을 제시했습니다.
핵심요약
- 1999년 버크셔 하사웨이 부채권 가치 당 주당 증가율은 0.5%에 불과했으며, 주가는 20% 급락했습니다
- 이후 10년간 버크셔 하사웨이의 수익률은 176%에 달한 반면, S&P 500 지수는 -4.8%의 총 수익률을 기록했습니다
- 빌 애크먼은 세 종목을 버크셔 하사웨이를 2000년에 산 것과 같은 기회라고 비교했습니다
- 반도체 주가는 올해 90% 이상 상승했고, 에너지 주가는 약 60% 상승한 반면, S&P 500 지수는 9%만 상승했습니다
도입
이 기사는 투자자에게 버크셔 하사웨이의 과거 성과와 현재의 시장 동향을 비교하며, 장기적인 가치 투자의 가능성을 제시합니다. 특히, AI와 에너지 분야의 성장과 함께 저평가된 종목의 투자 가치에 주목할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 1: 버크셔 하사웨이의 과거 성과와 현재의 기회
버크셔 하사웨이의 1999년 부채권 가치 당 주당 증가율은 0.5%에 불과했으며, 주가는 20% 급락했습니다. 이는 당시 시장 분위기와 버크셔 하사웨이의 전략적 방향이 맞지 않았기 때문으로 분석됩니다. 그러나 이후 10년간 버크셔 하사웨이의 수익률은 176%에 달한 반면, S&P 500 지수는 -4.8%의 총 수익률을 기록했습니다. 이는 버크셔 하사웨이의 장기적인 가치 투자가 시장 변동성과 무관하게 안정적인 수익을 창출할 수 있음을 보여줍니다.
빌 애크먼은 세 종목을 버크셔 하사웨이를 2000년에 산 것과 같은 기회라고 비교하며, 장기적인 가치 투자의 가능성을 제시했습니다. 이는 현재 시장 환경에서 저평가된 종목의 투자 가치에 주목할 필요가 있음을 시사합니다.
본문 2: AI와 에너지 분야의 성장과 저평가된 종목의 투자 가치
반도체 주가는 올해 90% 이상 상승했고, 에너지 주가는 약 60% 상승한 반면, S&P 500 지수는 9%만 상승했습니다. 이는 AI와 에너지 분야의 성장이 시장 전체보다 더 빠른 속도로 진행되고 있음을 보여줍니다. 특히, 반도체 주가의 상승은 GPU와 AI 가속기의 수요 증가에 기인하며, 에너지 주가의 상승은 데이터센터의 전력 소비 증가에 기인합니다.
이러한 시장 동향은 AI와 에너지 분야의 성장 가능성이 높음을 시사하며, 저평가된 종목의 투자 가치에 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 특히, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Micro소프트와 같은 기업들은 AI와 에너지 분야의 성장과 관련하여 장기적인 투자 가치를 가지고 있을 가능성이 높습니다.
결론
버크셔 하사웨이의 과거 성과와 현재의 시장 동향을 비교하며, 장기적인 가치 투자의 가능성을 제시했습니다. 특히, AI와 에너지 분야의 성장과 저평가된 종목의 투자 가치에 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 향후 시장 변동성과 함께 장기적인 투자 전략을 수립하는 것이 중요할 것입니다.
Original Article
Bill Ackman Says These 3 Stocks Could Be Like Buying Berkshire Hathaway in 2000
1999 was a bad year for Berkshire Hathaway ( BRKA +0.46% ) ( BRKB +0.86% ) . Its book value per share increased by a measly half a percentage point. Its stock price tanked 20%. Meanwhile, the dot-com-fueled S&P 500 climbed 21%. It was the worst relative performance in any given year that Warren Buffett managed the company.
While Buffett took the blame for Berkshire's significant underperformance, he also expressed confidence that his company would "modestly exceed" the benchmark index over the next decade. Buffett might have been too modest. Over the next decade, from the date Buffett published his 1999 letter to shareholders (March 3, 2000), Berkshire Hathaway stock returned 176%. The S&P 500 total return during that period was -4.8%.
BRK.A Total Return Level data by YCharts.
Today, Bill Ackman, a billionaire investor who has long looked up to Buffett, has likened a group of stocks to buying Berkshire Hathaway in 2000. While the S&P 500 is consistently pushing toward new highs, these stocks seem to be left behind by the market. Investors can buy them now at an incredible value and benefit for years to come.
Buy these "old-fashioned" companies
The biggest trend in the stock market over the last few years has been artificial intelligence (AI). And more recently, even more capital has flowed into very specific sectors related to the AI trade.
Semiconductor stocks have climbed higher as demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) and other AI accelerators continues to grow; the need for networking chips has come into focus; and memory chipmakers face a massive supply crunch. Energy stocks have also benefited as giant data centers consume gigawatts of power. Semiconductor stocks are up more than 90% this year alone, and energy stocks are up close to 60% as of this writing. For reference, the S&P 500 is up just 9% so far this year.
Meanwhile, the market has left the buyers of those products behind. Amazon ( AMZN +0.69% ) , Meta Platforms ( META 0.13% ) , and Microsoft ( MSFT +1.96% ) have fallen out of favor with investors, and Ackman believes that's a mistake.
"People got excited about internet stocks and Berkshire Hathaway traded at the lowest valuation I think it ever traded at in its history," Ackman said at a recent conference. "I think a similar thing is happening today in a sense to Amazon, and Meta, Microsoft. These are old-fashioned companies in kind of this OpenAI era."
Indeed, Amazon and Microsoft operate the two largest public cloud platforms in the world. Their revenue is soaring as demand for AI compute grows, and they're investing as much as they reasonably can to meet demand. They're also using significant compute capacity for their own AI development, which fuels other parts of their businesses and drives revenue and operating profits.
Meta may have more to gain from advances in AI than any company. Its advertising business is already seeing strong performance from algorithm improvements across Facebook and Instagram. Ad revenue accelerated sharply in the first quarter. AI chatbots have the potential to turn WhatsApp into a sales and customer service hub for small businesses. And AI-assisted content creation could help serve more personalized images, videos, and advertisements to its 3.5 billion users.
Nonetheless, investors have concerns about their spending. Ackman takes the opposite stance. "When a business you own, managed by a management team you trust, announces a large increase in capital spending due to increased demand for its products or services, you should be applauding rather than booing." Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta's accelerating revenue growth is a strong indication that they're making the smart decision with their spending plans.
One thing that allowed Berkshire Hathaway to dramatically outperform the S&P 500 in the 2000s was its starting valuation. The stock fell below 1.1 times book value in March of 2000. That's the price Buffett would buy back shares of Berkshire Hathaway before the board changed its share-repurchase policy in 2018. In effect, it was a floor for the stock's valuation. By 2010, the price-to-book ratio had expanded to nearly 1.5, and its book value had climbed quite substantially as well.
Today, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta trade for price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios they've rarely seen before: 28, 22.5, and 18 times forward earnings expectations, respectively. That's despite all three companies exhibiting strong revenue growth. While their massive capital expenditures will weigh on operating margin in the near term, they still have durable competitive advantages across their businesses, which should ensure long-term earnings power.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see these stocks' performances "modestly exceed" the market average over the next decade as earnings grow and the market rewards them with price-multiple expansion.